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Tikveš vs Voska Sport — First League 2019

Tikveš
Tikveš
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Voska Sport
Voska Sport
8/27/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Tikveš53%
×Draw25%
Voska Sport22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tikveš
1.63
Voska Sport
0.94

Tikveš creates 73% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 33 away

creates per match

Tikveš
1.44
Voska Sport
0.88

allows per match

Tikveš
0.99
Voska Sport
1.82

finishing

Tikveš+0.00on par
Voska Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tikveš ↓

Voska Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tikveš or draw
78%
Tikveš or Voska Sport
75%
Draw or Voska Sport
47%

Winning margin

Tikveš wins by 2+
29%
Voska Sport wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tikveš 1+ goals
80%
Tikveš 2+ goals
48%
Tikveš 3+ goals
22%
Voska Sport 1+ goals
61%
Voska Sport 2+ goals
24%
Voska Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tikveš (draw refunded)
71%
Voska Sport (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tikveš at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.99 · 82 matches

Voska Sport away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tikveš attack 1.44 + Voska Sport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.63

Voska Sport attack 0.88 + Tikveš defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tikveš scores more
53%
level
25%
Voska Sport scores more
22%

Tikveš at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tikveš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tikveš vs Voska Sport

Tikveš and Voska Sport drew 1-1 in First League on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Kavadarci.