Tikveš 0–2 Renova: Result & Stats | First League

Tikveš

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Renova

R. Selmani 90+4'

E. Ramadani 25'

9/12/2021

First League · Round 6Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tikveš46%

×Draw26%

Renova28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TikvešExpected goals in this matchRenova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.07

Tikveš

1.47

Renova

1.07

Tikveš creates 37% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 46 away

1.44

creates per match

1.15

0.99

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Tikveš

1.44

Renova

1.15

allows per match

Tikveš

0.99

Renova

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tikveš+0.00on par

Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tikveš ↓

Renova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tikveš or draw

72%

Tikveš or Renova

74%

Draw or Renova

54%

Winning margin

Tikveš wins by 2+

23%

Renova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tikveš 1+ goals

77%

Tikveš 2+ goals

43%

Tikveš 3+ goals

18%

Renova 1+ goals

66%

Renova 2+ goals

29%

Renova 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tikveš (draw refunded)

63%

Renova (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tikveš at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.99 · 82 matches

Renova away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tikveš attack 1.44 + Renova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.47

Renova attack 1.15 + Tikveš defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tikveš scores more

46%

level

26%

Renova scores more

28%

Tikveš at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tikveš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

E. Ramadani

25'

E. Ramadani

28'

A. Varelovski

46'

R. Temelkov← S. Naumcheski

46'

A. Ngoba← J. Naumoski

46'

S. Fetai← F. Ebibi

56'

R. Temelkov

63'

A. Mishov← R. Kocev

68'

E. Spahiu← S. Hristov

72'

S. Shefiti← F. Jusufi

85'

S. Petkovski← U. Mirković

90+1'

J. Mena← E. Ramadani

90+4'

R. Selmani

Tikveš

Renova

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Blazhevski

46'▲R. Temelkov←▼S. Naumcheski

46'▲A. Ngoba←▼J. Naumoski

63'▲A. Mishov←▼R. Kocev

68'▲E. Spahiu←▼S. Hristov

85'▲S. Petkovski←▼U. Mirković

Tikveš substitutes

TemelkovNgobaMishovSpahiuPetkovski

Manager: Q. Osmani

46'▲S. Fetai←▼F. Ebibi

72'▲S. Shefiti←▼F. Jusufi

90+1'▲J. Mena←▼E. Ramadani

Renova substitutes

FetaiShefitiMena