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Renova vs Tikveš — First League 2019

Renova
Renova
CANC
00:00
Tikveš
Tikveš
10/15/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Renova42%
×Draw28%
Tikveš30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renova
1.30
Tikveš
1.04

Renova creates 25% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 80 away

creates per match

Renova
1.19
Tikveš
1.05

allows per match

Renova
1.04
Tikveš
1.41

finishing

Renova+0.00on par
Tikveš+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Tikveš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Renova or draw
70%
Renova or Tikveš
72%
Draw or Tikveš
58%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+
19%
Tikveš wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals
73%
Renova 2+ goals
37%
Renova 3+ goals
14%
Tikveš 1+ goals
65%
Tikveš 2+ goals
28%
Tikveš 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)
59%
Tikveš (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Tikveš away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 1.19 + Tikveš defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tikveš attack 1.05 + Renova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Renova scores more
42%
level
28%
Tikveš scores more
30%

Renova at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Renova vs Tikveš — Match Preview

Renova face Tikveš on October 15, 2022 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Renova host Tikveš at Ecolog Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.