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Tihad Casablanca vs Chabab Atl. Khenifra — Botola 2 2025

Tihad Casablanca
Tihad Casablanca
FT
3 – 3
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
12/8/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 2Stade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Tihad Casablanca41%
×Draw29%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tihad Casablanca
1.19
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
0.97

Tihad Casablanca creates 23% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 120 away

creates per match

Tihad Casablanca
1.16
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
0.79

allows per match

Tihad Casablanca
1.16
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.22

finishing

Tihad Casablanca+0.00on par
Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tihad Casablanca ↓

Chabab Atl. Khenifra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tihad Casablanca or draw
70%
Tihad Casablanca or Chabab Atl. Khenifra
71%
Draw or Chabab Atl. Khenifra
59%

Winning margin

Tihad Casablanca wins by 2+
18%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tihad Casablanca 1+ goals
70%
Tihad Casablanca 2+ goals
33%
Tihad Casablanca 3+ goals
12%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals
62%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals
25%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tihad Casablanca (draw refunded)
58%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tihad Casablanca at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tihad Casablanca attack 1.16 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 0.79 + Tihad Casablanca defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tihad Casablanca scores more
41%
level
29%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more
30%

Tihad Casablanca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tihad Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tihad Casablanca vs Chabab Atl. Khenifra

Tihad Casablanca and Chabab Atl. Khenifra drew 3-3 in Botola 2 on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Larbi Zaouli in Casablanca.