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Chabab Atl. Khenifra vs Tihad Casablanca — Botola 2 2025

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
Chabab Atl. Khenifra
FT
1 – 0
Tihad Casablanca
Tihad Casablanca
4/11/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 17Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Chabab Atl. Khenifra41%
×Draw31%
Tihad Casablanca27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.09
Tihad Casablanca
0.83

Chabab Atl. Khenifra creates 31% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 46 away

creates per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
1.02
Tihad Casablanca
0.87

allows per match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra
0.80
Tihad Casablanca
1.17

finishing

Chabab Atl. Khenifra+0.00on par
Tihad Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Atl. Khenifra ↓

Tihad Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chabab Atl. Khenifra or draw
73%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra or Tihad Casablanca
69%
Draw or Tihad Casablanca
59%

Winning margin

Chabab Atl. Khenifra wins by 2+
17%
Tihad Casablanca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chabab Atl. Khenifra 1+ goals
66%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 2+ goals
30%
Chabab Atl. Khenifra 3+ goals
10%
Tihad Casablanca 1+ goals
56%
Tihad Casablanca 2+ goals
20%
Tihad Casablanca 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chabab Atl. Khenifra (draw refunded)
60%
Tihad Casablanca (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.80 · 120 matches

Tihad Casablanca away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Atl. Khenifra attack 1.02 + Tihad Casablanca defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Tihad Casablanca attack 0.87 + Chabab Atl. Khenifra defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chabab Atl. Khenifra scores more
41%
level
31%
Tihad Casablanca scores more
27%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chabab Atl. Khenifra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab Atl. Khenifra vs Tihad Casablanca

Chabab Atl. Khenifra beat Tihad Casablanca 1-0 in Botola 2 on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Khénifra.