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Tigres UANL vs Orlando City SC — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANLadvanced
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC
3/13/2024CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tigres UANL57%
×Draw21%
Orlando City SC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
2.03
Orlando City SC
1.18

Tigres UANL creates 72% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
2.72
Orlando City SC
1.67

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.68
Orlando City SC
1.33

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Orlando City SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Orlando City SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
78%
Tigres UANL or Orlando City SC
79%
Draw or Orlando City SC
43%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
34%
Orlando City SC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
87%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
60%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
33%
Orlando City SC 1+ goals
69%
Orlando City SC 2+ goals
33%
Orlando City SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
72%
Orlando City SC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Orlando City SC away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 2.72 + Orlando City SC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.03

Orlando City SC attack 1.67 + Tigres UANL defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
57%
level
21%
Orlando City SC scores more
22%

Tigres UANL at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONCACAF Champions League: Tigres UANL 4–2 Orlando City SC

Tigres UANL beat Orlando City SC 4-2 in CONCACAF Champions League on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolás de los Garza.