Orlando City SC 0–0 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats

Orlando City SC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tigres UANL

3/6/2024

CONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Inter&Co Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Orlando City SC47%

×Draw29%

Tigres UANL23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orlando City SCExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.78

Orlando City SC

1.25

Tigres UANL

0.78

Orlando City SC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 24 away

1.33

creates per match

0.88

0.67

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Orlando City SC

1.33

Tigres UANL

0.88

allows per match

Orlando City SC

0.67

Tigres UANL

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orlando City SC+0.00on par

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando City SC ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Orlando City SC or draw

77%

Orlando City SC or Tigres UANL

71%

Draw or Tigres UANL

53%

Winning margin

Orlando City SC wins by 2+

22%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Orlando City SC 1+ goals

71%

Orlando City SC 2+ goals

36%

Orlando City SC 3+ goals

13%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

54%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

18%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Orlando City SC (draw refunded)

67%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando City SC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando City SC attack 1.33 + Tigres UANL defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tigres UANL attack 0.88 + Orlando City SC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Orlando City SC scores more

47%

level

29%

Tigres UANL scores more

23%

Orlando City SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Orlando City SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orlando City SC vs Tigres UANL

Orlando City SC and Tigres UANL drew 0-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on March 6, 2024.

The match was played at Inter&Co Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

Orlando City SC vs Tigres UANL — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Orlando City SC vs Tigres UANL