Tigres UANL 3–3 Monarcas: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Tigres UANL

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Monarcas

E. Vargas 82'

L. Zelarayán 78', 65'

É. Flores 66'

M. Sansores 32', 19'

4/21/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Universitario (UANL)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Tigres UANL50%

×Draw24%

Monarcas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tigres UANLExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.13

Tigres UANL

1.66

Monarcas

1.13

Tigres UANL creates 47% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 40 away

1.82

creates per match

1.35

0.90

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Tigres UANL

1.82

Monarcas

1.35

allows per match

Tigres UANL

0.90

Monarcas

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw

74%

Tigres UANL or Monarcas

76%

Draw or Monarcas

50%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

26%

Monarcas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

81%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

49%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

23%

Monarcas 1+ goals

68%

Monarcas 2+ goals

31%

Monarcas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

66%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.90 · 158 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.82 + Monarcas defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Monarcas attack 1.35 + Tigres UANL defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tigres UANL scores more

50%

level

24%

Monarcas scores more

26%

Tigres UANL at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Zelarayán

Tigres UANL · F

9.3

Match Events

19'

M. Sansores↳ C. Ramírez

25'

Jair Díaz

32'

M. Sansores↳ R. Millar

46'

J. García← E. Tercero

65'

L. Zelarayán↳ J. Damm

66'

É. Flores↳ C. Ramírez

70'

G. Lezcano← A. Acosta

75'

A. Catalán← C. Ramírez

78'

L. Zelarayán↳ A. Gignac

81'

J. Dueñas← I. Jiménez

81'

E. Vargas← J. Díaz

82'

E. Vargas↳ L. Zelarayán

86'

Jesús Dueñas

88'

R. Meraz← É. Flores

90'

Gabriel Achilier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TigresMonarcas

Overview

63%Possession37%

18Total Shots11

9Corners1

14Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots11

7On Target4

6Off Target6

5Blocked1

8Inside Box7

10Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

560Total Passes338

487Accurate Passes275

87%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0