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Monarcas vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

Monarcas
Monarcas
CANC
00:00
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
4/11/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Monarcas36%
×Draw26%
Tigres UANL38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monarcas
1.31
Tigres UANL
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 155 away

creates per match

Monarcas
1.49
Tigres UANL
1.26

allows per match

Monarcas
1.44
Tigres UANL
1.14

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par
Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw
62%
Monarcas or Tigres UANL
74%
Draw or Tigres UANL
64%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+
16%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals
73%
Monarcas 2+ goals
38%
Monarcas 3+ goals
14%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
74%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
39%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)
49%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.44 · 41 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.14 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.49 + Tigres UANL defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tigres UANL attack 1.26 + Monarcas defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Monarcas scores more
36%
level
26%
Tigres UANL scores more
38%

Tigres UANL at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Monarcas face Tigres UANL (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Monarcas hosting Tigres UANL. Match starts April 11, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Monarcas host Tigres UANL at Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.