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Tigres UANL vs Mazatlán — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mazatlán
Mazatlán
4/25/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Tigres UANL60%
×Draw22%
Mazatlán18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.85
Mazatlán
0.90

Tigres UANL creates 106% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 103 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.83
Mazatlán
0.89

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.91
Mazatlán
1.86

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Mazatlán+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Mazatlán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
82%
Tigres UANL or Mazatlán
78%
Draw or Mazatlán
40%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
35%
Mazatlán wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
84%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
55%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
28%
Mazatlán 1+ goals
59%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
23%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
77%
Mazatlán (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.91 · 161 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.83 + Mazatlán defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Mazatlán attack 0.89 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
60%
level
22%
Mazatlán scores more
18%

Tigres UANL at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tigres UANL vs Mazatlán

Tigres UANL beat Mazatlán 5-1 in Liga MX on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in Monterrey.