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Mazatlán vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

Mazatlán
Mazatlán
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
10/23/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio El Encanto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Mazatlán34%
×Draw26%
Tigres UANL39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mazatlán
1.25
Tigres UANL
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 157 away

creates per match

Mazatlán
1.37
Tigres UANL
1.25

allows per match

Mazatlán
1.47
Tigres UANL
1.13

finishing

Mazatlán+0.00on par
Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mazatlán ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mazatlán or draw
61%
Mazatlán or Tigres UANL
74%
Draw or Tigres UANL
66%

Winning margin

Mazatlán wins by 2+
15%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mazatlán 1+ goals
71%
Mazatlán 2+ goals
36%
Mazatlán 3+ goals
13%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
74%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
39%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mazatlán (draw refunded)
47%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mazatlán at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 102 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mazatlán attack 1.37 + Tigres UANL defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tigres UANL attack 1.25 + Mazatlán defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mazatlán scores more
34%
level
26%
Tigres UANL scores more
39%

Tigres UANL at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Mazatlán 2–0 Tigres UANL

Mazatlán beat Tigres UANL 2-0 in Liga MX on October 23, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Encanto in Mazatlán.