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Tigres UANL vs Lobos Buap — Liga MX 2018

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lobos Buap
Lobos Buap
10/28/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Universitario (UANL)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tigres UANL61%
×Draw22%
Lobos Buap17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.92
Lobos Buap
0.90

Tigres UANL creates 113% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.83
Lobos Buap
0.88

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.91
Lobos Buap
2.00

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Lobos Buap+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Lobos Buap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
83%
Tigres UANL or Lobos Buap
78%
Draw or Lobos Buap
39%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
36%
Lobos Buap wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
85%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
57%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
30%
Lobos Buap 1+ goals
59%
Lobos Buap 2+ goals
23%
Lobos Buap 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
78%
Lobos Buap (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.91 · 161 matches

Lobos Buap away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.83 + Lobos Buap defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Lobos Buap attack 0.88 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
61%
level
22%
Lobos Buap scores more
17%

Tigres UANL at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tigres UANL vs Lobos Buap

Tigres UANL and Lobos Buap drew 2-2 in Liga MX on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario (UANL) in Monterrey.