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Lobos Buap vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2018

Lobos Buap
Lobos Buap
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
4/14/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 14Estadio Universitario BUAP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lobos Buap34%
×Draw26%
Tigres UANL40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lobos Buap
1.24
Tigres UANL
1.36

Tigres UANL creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 157 away

creates per match

Lobos Buap
1.35
Tigres UANL
1.25

allows per match

Lobos Buap
1.47
Tigres UANL
1.13

finishing

Lobos Buap+0.00on par
Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lobos Buap ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lobos Buap or draw
60%
Lobos Buap or Tigres UANL
74%
Draw or Tigres UANL
66%

Winning margin

Lobos Buap wins by 2+
15%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lobos Buap 1+ goals
71%
Lobos Buap 2+ goals
35%
Lobos Buap 3+ goals
13%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
74%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
39%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lobos Buap (draw refunded)
46%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lobos Buap at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lobos Buap attack 1.35 + Tigres UANL defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tigres UANL attack 1.25 + Lobos Buap defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lobos Buap scores more
34%
level
26%
Tigres UANL scores more
40%

Tigres UANL at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lobos Buap vs Tigres UANL

Tigres UANL beat Lobos Buap 3-0 in Liga MX on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario BUAP in Puebla.