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Tigres UANL vs FC Cincinnati — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANLadvanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
F. Gorriaran 90'
R. Aguirre 49', 5'
O. Herrera 46', 10'
K. Denkey 65'
3/20/2026CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Estadio Universitario (UANL)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tigres UANL56%
×Draw20%
FC Cincinnati24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
2.23
FC Cincinnati
1.42

Tigres UANL creates 57% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
2.63
FC Cincinnati
2.17

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.67
FC Cincinnati
1.83

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
FC Cincinnati+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

FC Cincinnati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
76%
Tigres UANL or FC Cincinnati
80%
Draw or FC Cincinnati
44%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
34%
FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
89%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
65%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
38%
FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
76%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
41%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
70%
FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.67 · 24 matches

FC Cincinnati away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 2.63 + FC Cincinnati defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.23

FC Cincinnati attack 2.17 + Tigres UANL defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
56%
level
20%
FC Cincinnati scores more
24%

Tigres UANL at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
O. HerreraTigres UANLTigres UANL · M
9.5

Match Events

5'
R. Aguirre↳ J. Garza
10'
O. Herrera↳ J. Brunetta
15'
Ángel Correa
20'
Gilberto Flores
24'
Nahuel Guzmán
24'
Teenage Hadebe
46'
M. Miazga← T. Hadebe
46'
A. Powell← E. Echenique
46'
O. Herrera↳ R. Aguirre
49'
R. Aguirre↳ O. Herrera
61'
César Araújo
62'
O. Nwobodo← G. Flores
64'
Matthew Miazga
65'
K. Denkey↳ Evander
68'
Diego Lainez
78'
A. Gignac← O. Herrera
78'
F. Gorriaran← V. Lorona
78'
T. Anunga← T. Barlow
86'
Tah Anunga
87'
D. A. Sanchez Guevara← C. Araujo
87'
M. Flores← J. Garza
87'
N. Hagglund← Evander
90+11'
Ivan López
90+10'
Fernando Gorriarán
90+4'
I. Lopez← J. Brunetta
90'
F. Gorriaran↳ A. Gignac

Possession

57%Tigres

Shots

19Tigres

Pass accuracy

52%Tigres

Statistics

TigresFC
Overview
57%Possession43%
19Total Shots9
1.81Expected Goals (xG)0.79
6Corners5
13Fouls12
Shots
19Total Shots9
9On Target1
6Off Target6
4Blocked2
10Inside Box5
9Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
415Total Passes322
322Accurate Passes236
78%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls12
6Yellow Cards4
4Offsides0

CONCACAF Champions League: Tigres UANL 5–1 FC Cincinnati

Tigres UANL beat FC Cincinnati 5-1 in CONCACAF Champions League on March 20, 2026.

Goals: R. Aguirre (5', 49'), O. Herrera (10', 46'), K. Denkey (65'), F. Gorriaran (90').

Tigres UANL controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario (UANL) in Monterrey.