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FC Cincinnati vs Tigres UANL — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
P. Bucha 3'
N. Ibáñez 17'
3/4/2025CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16TQL Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Cincinnati70%
×Draw19%
Tigres UANL11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cincinnati
2.08
Tigres UANL
0.69

FC Cincinnati creates 201% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

creates per match

FC Cincinnati
3.00
Tigres UANL
0.88

allows per match

FC Cincinnati
0.50
Tigres UANL
1.17

finishing

FC Cincinnati+0.00on par
Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cincinnati ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Cincinnati or draw
89%
FC Cincinnati or Tigres UANL
81%
Draw or Tigres UANL
30%

Winning margin

FC Cincinnati wins by 2+
45%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Cincinnati 1+ goals
87%
FC Cincinnati 2+ goals
61%
FC Cincinnati 3+ goals
34%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
50%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
15%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FC Cincinnati (draw refunded)
86%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cincinnati at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cincinnati attack 3.00 + Tigres UANL defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Tigres UANL attack 0.88 + FC Cincinnati defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FC Cincinnati scores more
70%
level
19%
Tigres UANL scores more
11%

FC Cincinnati at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FC Cincinnati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
P. BuchaFC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati · M
7.6

Match Events

3'
P. Bucha↳ K. Denkey
17'
N. Ibáñez↳ S. Córdova
54'
Kévin Denkey
65'
L. Orellano← Y. Kubo
65'
U. Antuna← S. Córdova
72'
Teenage Hadebe
78'
J. Vigón← M. Flores
79'
Jesus Garza
81'
Sergio Santos← D. Yedlin
87'
C. Baird← Evander
88'
Obinna Nwobodo
89'
B. Parra← Rafael Carioca

Possession

46%FC

Shots

12FC

Pass accuracy

50%FC

Statistics

FCTigres
Overview
46%Possession54%
12Total Shots6
2Corners2
12Fouls18
Shots
12Total Shots6
5On Target4
4Off Target2
3Blocked0
4Inside Box3
8Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
476Total Passes546
401Accurate Passes463
84%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls18
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: FC Cincinnati vs Tigres UANL

FC Cincinnati and Tigres UANL drew 1-1 in CONCACAF Champions League on March 4, 2025.

Goals: P. Bucha (3'), N. Ibáñez (17').

Tigres UANL controlled possession (54%) and registered 6 shots to 12.

The match was played at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.