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Tigres UANL vs CD Motagua — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANLadvanced
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CD Motagua
CD Motagua
4/14/2023CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsEstadio Universitario de Nuevo León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tigres UANL81%
×Draw13%
CD Motagua6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
2.70
CD Motagua
0.59

Tigres UANL creates 358% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
2.72
CD Motagua
0.50

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.68
CD Motagua
2.67

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
CD Motagua+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

CD Motagua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
94%
Tigres UANL or CD Motagua
87%
Draw or CD Motagua
19%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
60%
CD Motagua wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
93%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
75%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
50%
CD Motagua 1+ goals
45%
CD Motagua 2+ goals
12%
CD Motagua 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
93%
CD Motagua (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 2.72, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

CD Motagua away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 2.72 + CD Motagua defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.70

CD Motagua attack 0.50 + Tigres UANL defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
81%
level
13%
CD Motagua scores more
6%

Tigres UANL at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tigres UANL vs CD Motagua

Tigres UANL beat CD Motagua 5-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on April 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León in San Nicolás de los Garza.