CD Motagua 0–1 Tigres UANL: Result & Stats

CD Motagua

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tigres UANL

4/6/2023

CONCACAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsEstadio Olímpico Metropolitano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

CD Motagua26%

×Draw33%

Tigres UANL41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD MotaguaExpected goals in this matchTigres UANL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

1.02

CD Motagua

0.75

Tigres UANL

1.02

Tigres UANL creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

0.33

creates per match

0.88

1.17

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

CD Motagua

0.33

Tigres UANL

0.88

allows per match

CD Motagua

1.17

Tigres UANL

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Motagua+0.00on par

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Motagua ↓

Tigres UANL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–117%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

CD Motagua or draw

59%

CD Motagua or Tigres UANL

67%

Draw or Tigres UANL

74%

Winning margin

CD Motagua wins by 2+

8%

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

CD Motagua 1+ goals

53%

CD Motagua 2+ goals

17%

CD Motagua 3+ goals

4%

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

64%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

27%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CD Motagua (draw refunded)

39%

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Motagua at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Motagua attack 0.33 + Tigres UANL defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.75

Tigres UANL attack 0.88 + CD Motagua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CD Motagua scores more

26%

level

33%

Tigres UANL scores more

41%

Tigres UANL at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff