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Tigres FC vs Real Soacha — Primera B 2018

Tigres FC
Tigres FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Soacha
Real Soacha
9/13/2025Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 10Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Tigres FC38%
×Draw30%
Real Soacha32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres FC
1.12
Real Soacha
0.99

Tigres FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 56 away

creates per match

Tigres FC
1.04
Real Soacha
1.00

allows per match

Tigres FC
0.99
Real Soacha
1.20

finishing

Tigres FC+0.00on par
Real Soacha+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres FC ↓

Real Soacha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tigres FC or draw
68%
Tigres FC or Real Soacha
70%
Draw or Real Soacha
62%

Winning margin

Tigres FC wins by 2+
16%
Real Soacha wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tigres FC 1+ goals
67%
Tigres FC 2+ goals
31%
Tigres FC 3+ goals
10%
Real Soacha 1+ goals
63%
Real Soacha 2+ goals
26%
Real Soacha 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tigres FC (draw refunded)
55%
Real Soacha (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.99 · 142 matches

Real Soacha away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres FC attack 1.04 + Real Soacha defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Real Soacha attack 1.00 + Tigres FC defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tigres FC scores more
38%
level
30%
Real Soacha scores more
32%

Tigres FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tigres FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tigres FC vs Real Soacha

Real Soacha beat Tigres FC 2-0 in Primera B on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.