Real Soacha 1–0 Tigres FC: Result & Stats

Real Soacha

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tigres FC

8/22/2024

Primera B · Clausura - 6Estadio Enrique Olaya Herrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Real Soacha51%

×Draw27%

Tigres FC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real SoachaExpected goals in this matchTigres FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.82

Real Soacha

1.42

Tigres FC

0.82

Real Soacha creates 73% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 141 away

1.48

creates per match

0.72

0.93

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Real Soacha

1.48

Tigres FC

0.72

allows per match

Real Soacha

0.93

Tigres FC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Soacha+0.00on par

Tigres FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Soacha ↓

Tigres FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Soacha or draw

78%

Real Soacha or Tigres FC

73%

Draw or Tigres FC

49%

Winning margin

Real Soacha wins by 2+

25%

Tigres FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Soacha 1+ goals

76%

Real Soacha 2+ goals

41%

Real Soacha 3+ goals

17%

Tigres FC 1+ goals

56%

Tigres FC 2+ goals

20%

Tigres FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Soacha (draw refunded)

70%

Tigres FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Soacha at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Tigres FC away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.35 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Soacha attack 1.48 + Tigres FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tigres FC attack 0.72 + Real Soacha defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Soacha scores more

51%

level

27%

Tigres FC scores more

22%

Real Soacha at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Soacha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff