Tigres FC 0–1 Orsomarso: Result & Stats | Primera B

Tigres FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Orsomarso

2/4/2026

Primera B · Apertura - 3Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Tigres FC44%

×Draw30%

Orsomarso26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tigres FCExpected goals in this matchOrsomarso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.86

Tigres FC

1.21

Orsomarso

0.86

Tigres FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 131 away

1.04

creates per match

0.74

0.99

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Tigres FC

1.04

Orsomarso

0.74

allows per match

Tigres FC

0.99

Orsomarso

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tigres FC+0.00on par

Orsomarso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres FC ↓

Orsomarso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tigres FC or draw

74%

Tigres FC or Orsomarso

70%

Draw or Orsomarso

56%

Winning margin

Tigres FC wins by 2+

19%

Orsomarso wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tigres FC 1+ goals

70%

Tigres FC 2+ goals

34%

Tigres FC 3+ goals

12%

Orsomarso 1+ goals

58%

Orsomarso 2+ goals

21%

Orsomarso 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tigres FC (draw refunded)

63%

Orsomarso (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.99 · 142 matches

Orsomarso away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres FC attack 1.04 + Orsomarso defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Orsomarso attack 0.74 + Tigres FC defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tigres FC scores more

44%

level

30%

Orsomarso scores more

26%

Tigres FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tigres FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff