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Orsomarso vs Tigres FC — Primera B 2018

Orsomarso
Orsomarso
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tigres FC
Tigres FC
2/22/2025Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 4Francisco Rivera Escobar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Orsomarso43%
×Draw29%
Tigres FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orsomarso
1.22
Tigres FC
0.92

Orsomarso creates 33% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 141 away

creates per match

Orsomarso
1.08
Tigres FC
0.72

allows per match

Orsomarso
1.13
Tigres FC
1.35

finishing

Orsomarso+0.00on par
Tigres FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orsomarso ↓

Tigres FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Orsomarso or draw
72%
Orsomarso or Tigres FC
71%
Draw or Tigres FC
57%

Winning margin

Orsomarso wins by 2+
19%
Tigres FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Orsomarso 1+ goals
70%
Orsomarso 2+ goals
34%
Orsomarso 3+ goals
12%
Tigres FC 1+ goals
60%
Tigres FC 2+ goals
23%
Tigres FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Orsomarso (draw refunded)
61%
Tigres FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orsomarso at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

Tigres FC away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.35 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orsomarso attack 1.08 + Tigres FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Tigres FC attack 0.72 + Orsomarso defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Orsomarso scores more
43%
level
29%
Tigres FC scores more
28%

Orsomarso at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Orsomarso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orsomarso vs Tigres FC

Orsomarso and Tigres FC drew 1-1 in Primera B on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Francisco Rivera Escobar in Palmira.