Tigres FC vs Bogota FC — Primera B 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 131+ matches
Tigres FC46%
Bogota FC26%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tigres FC creates 42% more chances
Season form · 132 home / 131 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tigres FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tigres FC at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.98 · 132 matches
Bogota FC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.58 · 131 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tigres FC attack 1.05 + Bogota FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31
Bogota FC attack 0.85 + Tigres FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Tigres FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Tigres FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Internacional Palmira
Real Cartagena
Quindio
Patriotas
Real Soacha
Jaguares
Cucuta
EnvigadoBogota FC
Union Magdalena
PopayanTigres FC
Barranquilla
Huila
Orsomarso
Real Santander
Depor FC
Leones FC
Ind. YumboIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tigres FC host Bogota FC on Sunday, 30 March 2025 at 20:00. The match is part of the Primera B 2018/2019 season.
Primera B: Tigres FC 2–1 Bogota FC
Tigres FC beat Bogota FC 2-1 in Primera B on March 30, 2025.
Goals: D. Ibarra (45'), J. Rivaldo (47'), K. Castro (81').
The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.