Bogota FC 0–1 Tigres FC: Result & Stats | Primera B

Bogota FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tigres FC

O. Aragon 90'

3/11/2026

Primera B · Apertura - 9Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Bogota FC44%

×Draw28%

Tigres FC28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bogota FCExpected goals in this matchTigres FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.99

Bogota FC

1.32

Tigres FC

0.99

Bogota FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 133 away

1.29

creates per match

0.71

1.27

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Bogota FC

1.29

Tigres FC

0.71

allows per match

Bogota FC

1.27

Tigres FC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bogota FC+0.00on par

Tigres FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bogota FC ↓

Tigres FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bogota FC or draw

72%

Bogota FC or Tigres FC

72%

Draw or Tigres FC

56%

Winning margin

Bogota FC wins by 2+

20%

Tigres FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bogota FC 1+ goals

73%

Bogota FC 2+ goals

38%

Bogota FC 3+ goals

15%

Tigres FC 1+ goals

63%

Tigres FC 2+ goals

26%

Tigres FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bogota FC (draw refunded)

61%

Tigres FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bogota FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.27 · 129 matches

Tigres FC away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.35 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bogota FC attack 1.29 + Tigres FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tigres FC attack 0.71 + Bogota FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bogota FC scores more

44%

level

28%

Tigres FC scores more

28%

Bogota FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bogota FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

42'

53'

B. Castro← B. Cuero

54'

C. Ibarra← K. Mosquera

65'

C. Mosquera← H. Sandoval Lasso

78'

R. Rosales←

83'

90+3'

90+4'

S. Valbuena← L. Palacios

90+4'

J. Lopera← M. Alvarez

90'

O. Aragon

Bogota

Tigres

12

18

27

2

3

17

▼

Alvarez

13

Cuadros

10

▼

Mosquera

15

Quinones

11

▼

Palacios

9

⚽

29

32

30

3

13

5

14

6

18

▼

Cuero

11

▼

Lasso

99

Castillo

53'▲B. Castro←▼B. Cuero

65'▲C. Mosquera←▼H. Sandoval Lasso

Bogota FC substitutes

1Osorno4Londono28Medina36Canizalez15Malagon21Montien33Perez10Castro7Mosquera

54'▲C. Ibarra←▼K. Mosquera

78'▲R. Rosales←▼—

90+4'▲S. Valbuena←▼L. Palacios

90+4'▲J. Lopera←▼M. Alvarez

Tigres FC substitutes

1Larrota6Valbuena20Ibarra19Arrechea21Lopera24Meneses25Sanchez29Rativa30Rosales