Tigre 3–1 Rosario Central: Result & Stats

Tigre

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Rosario Central

M. Retegui 58', 30'

A. Castro 1'

G. Infantino 14'

8/8/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 12Estadio José Dellagiovanna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Tigre41%

×Draw30%

Rosario Central28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TigreExpected goals in this matchRosario Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.88

Tigre

1.13

Rosario Central

0.88

Tigre creates 28% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

1.17

creates per match

0.91

0.84

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Tigre

1.17

Rosario Central

0.91

allows per match

Tigre

0.84

Rosario Central

1.08

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Tigre+0.28scores more

Rosario Central-0.08on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigre ↓

Rosario Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tigre or draw

72%

Tigre or Rosario Central

70%

Draw or Rosario Central

59%

Winning margin

Tigre wins by 2+

17%

Rosario Central wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tigre 1+ goals

68%

Tigre 2+ goals

31%

Tigre 3+ goals

11%

Rosario Central 1+ goals

59%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

22%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tigre (draw refunded)

59%

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigre at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.84 · 11 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.08 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigre attack 1.17 + Rosario Central defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rosario Central attack 0.91 + Tigre defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tigre scores more

41%

level

30%

Rosario Central scores more

28%

Tigre at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tigre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

M. Retegui

Tigre · F

9.2

Match Events

1'

A. Castro↳ M. Retegui

14'

G. Infantino

30'

M. Retegui↳ I. Protti

39'

56'

58'

61'

69'

A. Marinelli← J. Cerrudo

77'

81'

81'

84'

86'

P. Magnín← M. Retegui

86'

L. Menossi← E. Fernández

87'

F. Oviedo← F. Buonanotte

87'

I. Cortez← K. Ortíz

89'

B. Armoa← F. Colidio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TigreRosario

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots11

4Corners1

7Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots11

5On Target3

4Off Target7

1Blocked1

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

441Total Passes370

333Accurate Passes244

76%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0