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Rosario Central vs Tigre — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tigre
Tigre
F. Mallo 90+5'
G. Maroni 14'
5/21/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Rosario Central43%
×Draw32%
Tigre25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
1.08
Tigre
0.76

Rosario Central creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.04
Tigre
0.89

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.62
Tigre
1.12

finishing

Rosario Central+0.29scores more
Tigre+0.11scores more

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Tigre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
75%
Rosario Central or Tigre
68%
Draw or Tigre
57%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
17%
Tigre wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
66%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
29%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
10%
Tigre 1+ goals
53%
Tigre 2+ goals
18%
Tigre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
63%
Tigre (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.62 · 18 matches

Tigre away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.04 + Tigre defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Tigre attack 0.89 + Rosario Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rosario Central scores more
43%
level
32%
Tigre scores more
25%

Rosario Central at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
F. MalloRosario CentralRosario Central · D
7.7

Match Events

14'
G. Maroni↳ A. Cardozo
32'
K. Lomonaco
39'
D. Martinez
44'
A. Rodríguez← A. Sández
46'
T. O'Connor← J. Gómez
46'
K. Ortíz← M. Martínez
68'
L. Giaccone← J. Campaz
77'
C. Quintana
78'
F. Ferreyra← L. Contín
79'
S. Medina← B. Armoa
81'
E. Forclaz← G. Maroni
90+2'
L. Giaccone
90+2'
J. Komar← C. Quintana
90+1'
S. González← T. Galván
90+5'
F. Mallo↳ M. Lovera

Possession

50%Rosario

Shots

9Rosario

Pass accuracy

49%Rosario

Statistics

RosarioTigre
Overview
50%Possession50%
9Total Shots9
0.78Expected Goals (xG)0.37
7Corners2
8Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots9
4On Target3
5Off Target3
0Blocked3
8Inside Box3
1Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
434Total Passes459
333Accurate Passes361
77%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
-0.11Goals Prevented-0.11
Discipline
8Fouls10
3Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Rosario Central vs Tigre

Rosario Central and Tigre drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 21, 2024.

Goals: G. Maroni (14'), F. Mallo (90+5').

Rosario Central controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.