Tigre 3–0 Platense: Result & Stats

Tigre

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Platense

F. Colidio 47'

L. Menossi 22'

V. Cabrera 13'

7/24/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 10Estadio José Dellagiovanna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Tigre45%

×Draw31%

Platense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TigreExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.76

Tigre

1.17

Platense

0.76

Tigre creates 54% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 21 away

1.13

creates per match

0.73

0.79

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Tigre

1.13

Platense

0.73

allows per match

Tigre

0.79

Platense

1.21

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Tigre+0.20scores more

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigre ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Tigre or draw

76%

Tigre or Platense

69%

Draw or Platense

55%

Winning margin

Tigre wins by 2+

20%

Platense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tigre 1+ goals

69%

Tigre 2+ goals

33%

Tigre 3+ goals

11%

Platense 1+ goals

53%

Platense 2+ goals

18%

Platense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Tigre (draw refunded)

66%

Platense (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigre at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.79 · 12 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigre attack 1.13 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Platense attack 0.73 + Tigre defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tigre scores more

45%

level

31%

Platense scores more

24%

Tigre at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tigre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Menossi

Tigre · M

8.3

Match Events

13'

V. Cabrera↳ F. Colidio

22'

24'

31'

36'

42'

46'

47'

F. Colidio↳ M. Retegui

54'

J. Esquivel← R. Contreras

54'

H. Tijanovich← F. Gino

62'

P. Magnín← M. Retegui

71'

I. Protti← F. Colidio

71'

M. Ortega← L. Menossi

78'

Vicente Taborda

79'

F. Baldassarra← V. Taborda

81'

R. González← J. Pignani

82'

A. Baldi← S. Prediger

82'

M. Galmarini← L. Blondel

90+2'

Ijiel Cesar Protti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TigrePlatense

Overview

60%Possession40%

20Total Shots8

3Corners5

9Fouls18

Shots

20Total Shots8

6On Target2

10Off Target4

4Blocked2

14Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

493Total Passes330

393Accurate Passes229

80%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides3