Tigre 3–0 Aldosivi: Result & Stats

Tigre

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Aldosivi

M. Retegui 61', 19'

B. Armoa 14'

9/30/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 22Estadio José Dellagiovanna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Tigre49%

×Draw27%

Aldosivi24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TigreExpected goals in this matchAldosivi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.89

Tigre

1.41

Aldosivi

0.89

Tigre creates 58% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.23

creates per match

0.92

0.86

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Tigre

1.23

Aldosivi

0.92

allows per match

Tigre

0.86

Aldosivi

1.59

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Tigre+0.27scores more

Aldosivi-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigre ↓

Aldosivi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tigre or draw

76%

Tigre or Aldosivi

73%

Draw or Aldosivi

51%

Winning margin

Tigre wins by 2+

24%

Aldosivi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tigre 1+ goals

76%

Tigre 2+ goals

41%

Tigre 3+ goals

17%

Aldosivi 1+ goals

59%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

22%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tigre (draw refunded)

67%

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigre at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.86 · 10 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.59 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigre attack 1.23 + Aldosivi defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Aldosivi attack 0.92 + Tigre defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tigre scores more

49%

level

27%

Aldosivi scores more

24%

Tigre at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tigre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

M. Retegui

Tigre · F

8.7

Match Events

14'

B. Armoa↳ L. Menossi

19'

M. Retegui↳ S. Prieto

21'

Mario López

39'

Marcelo Meli

55'

B. Leizza← V. Cabrera

56'

M. Pisano← L. Maciel

56'

S. Silva← F. Tobares

56'

E. Maciel← M. Morello

61'

M. Retegui↳ S. Prieto

66'

M. Ortega← F. Colidio

66'

S. Prediger← L. Blondel

70'

Emanuel Iñíguez

71'

P. Magnín← M. Retegui

71'

I. Protti← B. Armoa

77'

T. Martínez← E. Iñíguez

83'

J. Indacoechea← C. Meli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TigreAldosivi

Overview

57%Possession43%

22Total Shots3

9Corners1

11Fouls17

Shots

22Total Shots3

9On Target1

8Off Target1

5Blocked1

12Inside Box2

10Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

452Total Passes353

366Accurate Passes250

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls17

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3