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Aldosivi vs Tigre — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Aldosivi
Aldosivi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tigre
Tigre
C. Meli 88'
3/12/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 6Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Aldosivi37%
×Draw32%
Tigre30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aldosivi
0.99
Tigre
0.86

Aldosivi creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Aldosivi
0.85
Tigre
0.89

allows per match

Aldosivi
0.83
Tigre
1.12

finishing

Aldosivi-0.02on par
Tigre+0.11scores more

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Tigre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw
70%
Aldosivi or Tigre
68%
Draw or Tigre
63%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+
14%
Tigre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals
63%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
26%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
8%
Tigre 1+ goals
58%
Tigre 2+ goals
21%
Tigre 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)
55%
Tigre (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Tigre away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 0.85 + Tigre defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Tigre attack 0.89 + Aldosivi defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aldosivi scores more
37%
level
32%
Tigre scores more
30%

Aldosivi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
S. PredigerTigreTigre · M
8.3

Match Events

22'
Nicolás Valentini
57'
Matías Morello
64'
C. Meli← L. Maciel
70'
F. Colidio← I. Protti
70'
A. Obando← A. Castro
74'
M. Pisano← E. Mosquera
76'
P. Magnín← C. Zabala
76'
L. Menossi← M. Retegui
81'
M. Galmarini← V. Cabrera
82'
V. Mancini← B. Martínez
82'
T. Martínez← S. Silva
88'
C. Meli

Possession

34%Aldosivi

Shots

7Aldosivi

Pass accuracy

45%Aldosivi

Statistics

AldosiviTigre
Overview
34%Possession66%
7Total Shots23
5Corners11
14Fouls9
Shots
7Total Shots23
5On Target6
1Off Target7
1Blocked10
3Inside Box13
4Outside Box10
Passing
34%Possession66%
253Total Passes507
163Accurate Passes400
64%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
6Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0

Match Recap: Aldosivi vs Tigre

Aldosivi beat Tigre 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 12, 2022.

Goals: C. Meli (88').

Tigre controlled possession (66%) and registered 23 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.