Tidjikja 2–0 Gourel Sangue: Result & Stats

Tidjikja

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gourel Sangue

2/27/2022

Premier League · Round 14Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tidjikja69%

×Draw19%

Gourel Sangue12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TidjikjaExpected goals in this matchGourel Sangue

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.79

Tidjikja

2.17

Gourel Sangue

0.79

Tidjikja creates 175% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

1.12

creates per match

0.77

0.80

allows per match

3.23

creates per match

Tidjikja

1.12

Gourel Sangue

0.77

allows per match

Tidjikja

0.80

Gourel Sangue

3.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tidjikja+0.00on par

Gourel Sangue+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tidjikja ↓

Gourel Sangue →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tidjikja or draw

88%

Tidjikja or Gourel Sangue

81%

Draw or Gourel Sangue

31%

Winning margin

Tidjikja wins by 2+

45%

Gourel Sangue wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Tidjikja 1+ goals

89%

Tidjikja 2+ goals

64%

Tidjikja 3+ goals

36%

Gourel Sangue 1+ goals

55%

Gourel Sangue 2+ goals

19%

Gourel Sangue 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tidjikja (draw refunded)

85%

Gourel Sangue (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tidjikja at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Gourel Sangue away — creates 0.77, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tidjikja attack 1.12 + Gourel Sangue defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.17

Gourel Sangue attack 0.77 + Tidjikja defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tidjikja scores more

69%

level

19%

Gourel Sangue scores more

12%

Tidjikja at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Tidjikja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff