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Gourel Sangue vs Tidjikja — Premier League 2020

Gourel Sangue
Gourel Sangue
FT
2 – 1
Tidjikja
Tidjikja
9/25/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Stade de Kaédi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Gourel Sangue21%
×Draw27%
Tidjikja52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gourel Sangue
0.79
Tidjikja
1.43

Tidjikja creates 81% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 24 away

creates per match

Gourel Sangue
0.62
Tidjikja
1.08

allows per match

Gourel Sangue
1.77
Tidjikja
0.96

finishing

Gourel Sangue+0.00on par
Tidjikja+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gourel Sangue ↓

Tidjikja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gourel Sangue or draw
48%
Gourel Sangue or Tidjikja
73%
Draw or Tidjikja
79%

Winning margin

Gourel Sangue wins by 2+
6%
Tidjikja wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Gourel Sangue 1+ goals
55%
Gourel Sangue 2+ goals
19%
Gourel Sangue 3+ goals
5%
Tidjikja 1+ goals
76%
Tidjikja 2+ goals
42%
Tidjikja 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gourel Sangue (draw refunded)
28%
Tidjikja (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gourel Sangue at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Tidjikja away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gourel Sangue attack 0.62 + Tidjikja defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.79

Tidjikja attack 1.08 + Gourel Sangue defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gourel Sangue scores more
21%
level
27%
Tidjikja scores more
52%

Tidjikja at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tidjikja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gourel Sangue vs Tidjikja

Gourel Sangue beat Tidjikja 2-1 in Premier League on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Kaédi in Kaédi.