Tidaholms GoIF 1–1 Skara: Result & Stats

Tidaholms GoIF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Skara

6/29/2025

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 15Ulvesborg IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tidaholms GoIF34%

×Draw23%

Skara43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tidaholms GoIFExpected goals in this matchSkara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.76

Tidaholms GoIF

1.56

Skara

1.76

Skara creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

1.23

creates per match

1.90

1.62

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Tidaholms GoIF

1.23

Skara

1.90

allows per match

Tidaholms GoIF

1.62

Skara

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par

Skara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tidaholms GoIF ↓

Skara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Tidaholms GoIF or draw

57%

Tidaholms GoIF or Skara

77%

Draw or Skara

66%

Winning margin

Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+

16%

Skara wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals

79%

Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals

46%

Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals

21%

Skara 1+ goals

83%

Skara 2+ goals

52%

Skara 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)

45%

Skara (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tidaholms GoIF at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Skara away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tidaholms GoIF attack 1.23 + Skara defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.56

Skara attack 1.90 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tidaholms GoIF scores more

34%

level

23%

Skara scores more

43%

Skara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Skara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff