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Skara vs Tidaholms GoIF — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Skara
Skara
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tidaholms GoIF
Tidaholms GoIF
L. Fransson 68'
5/9/2025Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 7Sparbanken Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Skara59%
×Draw21%
Tidaholms GoIF20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Skara
2.04
Tidaholms GoIF
1.10

Skara creates 85% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Skara
1.55
Tidaholms GoIF
0.85

allows per match

Skara
1.35
Tidaholms GoIF
2.54

finishing

Skara+0.00on par
Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skara ↓

Tidaholms GoIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Skara or draw
80%
Skara or Tidaholms GoIF
79%
Draw or Tidaholms GoIF
41%

Winning margin

Skara wins by 2+
36%
Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Skara 1+ goals
87%
Skara 2+ goals
60%
Skara 3+ goals
33%
Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals
67%
Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals
30%
Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Skara (draw refunded)
75%
Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skara at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

Tidaholms GoIF away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skara attack 1.55 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.04

Tidaholms GoIF attack 0.85 + Skara defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Skara scores more
59%
level
21%
Tidaholms GoIF scores more
20%

Skara at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Skara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

68'
L. Fransson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Skara 0–1 Tidaholms GoIF

Tidaholms GoIF beat Skara 1-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on May 9, 2025.

Goals: L. Fransson (68').

The match was played at Sparbanken Arena in Skara.