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Tidaholms GoIF vs Motala — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Tidaholms GoIF
Tidaholms GoIF
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Motala
Motala
Unknown 43' (OG)
K. Qasem 88'
G. Hana 18'
8/23/2025Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 18Ulvesborg IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tidaholms GoIF36%
×Draw24%
Motala40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tidaholms GoIF
1.50
Motala
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Tidaholms GoIF
1.23
Motala
1.52

allows per match

Tidaholms GoIF
1.62
Motala
1.76

finishing

Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par
Motala+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tidaholms GoIF ↓

Motala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tidaholms GoIF or draw
60%
Tidaholms GoIF or Motala
76%
Draw or Motala
64%

Winning margin

Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+
17%
Motala wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals
78%
Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals
44%
Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals
19%
Motala 1+ goals
79%
Motala 2+ goals
46%
Motala 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)
48%
Motala (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tidaholms GoIF at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Motala away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tidaholms GoIF attack 1.23 + Motala defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Motala attack 1.52 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tidaholms GoIF scores more
36%
level
24%
Motala scores more
40%

Motala at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Motala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
G. Hana
43'
Own goal
88'
K. Qasem
Tidaholms
Motala
J. David
Manager: J. David
P. Walfridsson
Manager: P. Walfridsson

Match Recap: Tidaholms GoIF vs Motala

Motala beat Tidaholms GoIF 2-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on August 23, 2025.

Goals: G. Hana (18'), ? (43' o.g.), K. Qasem (88').

The match was played at Ulvesborg IP in Tidaholm.