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Motala vs Tidaholms GoIF — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Motala
Motala
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tidaholms GoIF
Tidaholms GoIF
5/24/2025Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 9Motala Idrottspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Motala65%
×Draw18%
Tidaholms GoIF16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motala
2.38
Tidaholms GoIF
1.10

Motala creates 116% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Motala
2.21
Tidaholms GoIF
0.85

allows per match

Motala
1.36
Tidaholms GoIF
2.54

finishing

Motala+0.00on par
Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motala ↓

Tidaholms GoIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Motala or draw
84%
Motala or Tidaholms GoIF
82%
Draw or Tidaholms GoIF
35%

Winning margin

Motala wins by 2+
43%
Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Motala 1+ goals
91%
Motala 2+ goals
68%
Motala 3+ goals
42%
Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals
67%
Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals
30%
Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Motala (draw refunded)
80%
Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motala at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

Tidaholms GoIF away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motala attack 2.21 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.38

Tidaholms GoIF attack 0.85 + Motala defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Motala scores more
65%
level
18%
Tidaholms GoIF scores more
16%

Motala at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Motala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motala vs Tidaholms GoIF

Motala beat Tidaholms GoIF 4-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Motala Idrottspark in Motala.