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Tidaholms GoIF vs Kongahälla — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Tidaholms GoIF
Tidaholms GoIF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kongahälla
Kongahälla
K. Meira Cerqueira 39'
5/4/2025Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 6Ulvesborg IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tidaholms GoIF31%
×Draw21%
Kongahälla48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tidaholms GoIF
1.61
Kongahälla
2.04

Kongahälla creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Tidaholms GoIF
1.23
Kongahälla
2.46

allows per match

Tidaholms GoIF
1.62
Kongahälla
2.00

finishing

Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par
Kongahälla+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tidaholms GoIF ↓

Kongahälla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Tidaholms GoIF or draw
52%
Tidaholms GoIF or Kongahälla
79%
Draw or Kongahälla
69%

Winning margin

Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+
15%
Kongahälla wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals
80%
Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals
48%
Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals
22%
Kongahälla 1+ goals
87%
Kongahälla 2+ goals
60%
Kongahälla 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)
39%
Kongahälla (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tidaholms GoIF at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Kongahälla away — creates 2.46, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tidaholms GoIF attack 1.23 + Kongahälla defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kongahälla attack 2.46 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tidaholms GoIF scores more
31%
level
21%
Kongahälla scores more
48%

Kongahälla at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kongahälla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
K. Meira Cerqueira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tidaholms GoIF vs Kongahälla

Kongahälla beat Tidaholms GoIF 1-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on May 4, 2025.

Goals: K. Meira Cerqueira (39').

The match was played at Ulvesborg IP in Tidaholm.