Kongahälla 3–0 Tidaholms GoIF: Result & Stats

Kongahälla

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tidaholms GoIF

Y. Fayad 77', 28'

H. Andersson 74'

8/30/2025

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 19Kongevi IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kongahälla64%

×Draw20%

Tidaholms GoIF16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KongahällaExpected goals in this matchTidaholms GoIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.95

Kongahälla

2.13

Tidaholms GoIF

0.95

Kongahälla creates 124% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.73

creates per match

0.85

1.04

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Kongahälla

1.73

Tidaholms GoIF

0.85

allows per match

Kongahälla

1.04

Tidaholms GoIF

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kongahälla+0.00on par

Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongahälla ↓

Tidaholms GoIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kongahälla or draw

84%

Kongahälla or Tidaholms GoIF

80%

Draw or Tidaholms GoIF

36%

Winning margin

Kongahälla wins by 2+

40%

Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kongahälla 1+ goals

88%

Kongahälla 2+ goals

63%

Kongahälla 3+ goals

35%

Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals

61%

Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals

25%

Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kongahälla (draw refunded)

80%

Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongahälla at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Tidaholms GoIF away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongahälla attack 1.73 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.13

Tidaholms GoIF attack 0.85 + Kongahälla defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kongahälla scores more

64%

level

20%

Tidaholms GoIF scores more

16%

Kongahälla at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kongahälla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Y. Fayad

74'

H. Andersson

77'

Y. Fayad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff