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Tidaholms GoIF vs Haga — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Tidaholms GoIF
Tidaholms GoIF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Haga
Haga
T. Liden 90'
O. Ekelund 13'
N. Liljebo 7'
Unknown 50' (OG)
4/24/2025Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 5Ulvesborg IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tidaholms GoIF51%
×Draw22%
Haga27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tidaholms GoIF
1.93
Haga
1.35

Tidaholms GoIF creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tidaholms GoIF
1.23
Haga
1.08

allows per match

Tidaholms GoIF
1.62
Haga
2.62

finishing

Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par
Haga+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tidaholms GoIF ↓

Haga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Tidaholms GoIF or draw
73%
Tidaholms GoIF or Haga
78%
Draw or Haga
49%

Winning margin

Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+
29%
Haga wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals
85%
Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals
57%
Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals
30%
Haga 1+ goals
74%
Haga 2+ goals
39%
Haga 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)
65%
Haga (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tidaholms GoIF at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Haga away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tidaholms GoIF attack 1.23 + Haga defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.93

Haga attack 1.08 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tidaholms GoIF scores more
51%
level
22%
Haga scores more
27%

Tidaholms GoIF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tidaholms GoIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
N. Liljebo
13'
O. Ekelund
50'
Own goal
90'
T. Liden

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Tidaholms GoIF 3–1 Haga

Tidaholms GoIF beat Haga 3-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on April 24, 2025.

Goals: N. Liljebo (7'), O. Ekelund (13'), ? (50' o.g.), T. Liden (90').

The match was played at Ulvesborg IP in Tidaholm.