Haga 2–1 Tidaholms GoIF: Result & Stats

Haga

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Tidaholms GoIF

6/25/2025

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 14Strömsbergsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Haga50%

×Draw24%

Tidaholms GoIF27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HagaExpected goals in this matchTidaholms GoIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.20

Haga

1.73

Tidaholms GoIF

1.20

Haga creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

0.92

creates per match

0.85

1.54

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Haga

0.92

Tidaholms GoIF

0.85

allows per match

Haga

1.54

Tidaholms GoIF

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haga+0.00on par

Tidaholms GoIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haga ↓

Tidaholms GoIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Haga or draw

73%

Haga or Tidaholms GoIF

76%

Draw or Tidaholms GoIF

50%

Winning margin

Haga wins by 2+

27%

Tidaholms GoIF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Haga 1+ goals

82%

Haga 2+ goals

52%

Haga 3+ goals

25%

Tidaholms GoIF 1+ goals

70%

Tidaholms GoIF 2+ goals

34%

Tidaholms GoIF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Haga (draw refunded)

65%

Tidaholms GoIF (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haga at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Tidaholms GoIF away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haga attack 0.92 + Tidaholms GoIF defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tidaholms GoIF attack 0.85 + Haga defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Haga scores more

50%

level

24%

Tidaholms GoIF scores more

27%

Haga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Haga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff