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Tianjin Teda vs Tianjin Songjiang — Super League 2018

Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
4/13/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tianjin Teda44%
×Draw24%
Tianjin Songjiang32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tianjin Teda
1.67
Tianjin Songjiang
1.38

Tianjin Teda creates 21% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tianjin Teda
1.44
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Tianjin Teda
1.35
Tianjin Songjiang
1.90

finishing

Tianjin Teda+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw
68%
Tianjin Teda or Tianjin Songjiang
76%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
56%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
23%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
81%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
50%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
23%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
75%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
40%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
58%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.35 · 121 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.44 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more
44%
level
24%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
32%

Tianjin Teda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Tianjin Teda 1–1 Tianjin Songjiang

Tianjin Teda and Tianjin Songjiang drew 1-1 in Super League on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Tianjin.