Tianjin Songjiang 0–0 Tianjin Teda: Result & Stats

Tianjin Songjiang

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tianjin Teda

8/15/2018

Super League · Round 18Haihe Education Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tianjin Songjiang40%

×Draw26%

Tianjin Teda34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin SongjiangExpected goals in this matchTianjin Teda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.28

Tianjin Songjiang

1.42

Tianjin Teda

1.28

Tianjin Songjiang creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 120 away

1.32

creates per match

1.11

1.45

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Tianjin Songjiang

1.32

Tianjin Teda

1.11

allows per match

Tianjin Songjiang

1.45

Tianjin Teda

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Tianjin Teda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Songjiang ↓

Tianjin Teda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tianjin Songjiang or draw

66%

Tianjin Songjiang or Tianjin Teda

74%

Draw or Tianjin Teda

60%

Winning margin

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+

19%

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals

76%

Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals

41%

Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals

17%

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

72%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

37%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)

54%

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Songjiang at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.32 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tianjin Teda attack 1.11 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tianjin Songjiang scores more

40%

level

26%

Tianjin Teda scores more

34%

Tianjin Songjiang at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tianjin Songjiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff