Tianjin Teda 1–1 Shijiazhuang Y. J.: Result & Stats

Tianjin Teda

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

4/16/2023

Super League · Round 1Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Tianjin Teda48%

×Draw23%

Shijiazhuang Y. J.29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin TedaExpected goals in this matchShijiazhuang Y. J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.30

Tianjin Teda

1.75

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.30

Tianjin Teda creates 35% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 68 away

1.44

creates per match

1.25

1.35

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Tianjin Teda

1.44

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.25

allows per match

Tianjin Teda

1.35

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tianjin Teda+0.00on par

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw

71%

Tianjin Teda or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

77%

Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.

52%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

26%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

83%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

52%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

25%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

73%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

37%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

63%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.35 · 121 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.44 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more

48%

level

23%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

29%

Tianjin Teda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff