Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1–1 Tianjin Teda: Result & Stats

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tianjin Teda

7/11/2023

Super League · Round 16Cangzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.39%

×Draw27%

Tianjin Teda34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.Expected goals in this matchTianjin Teda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.22

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.31

Tianjin Teda

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 120 away

1.09

creates per match

1.11

1.32

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.09

Tianjin Teda

1.11

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.

1.32

Tianjin Teda

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Tianjin Teda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Tianjin Teda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw

66%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Tianjin Teda

73%

Draw or Tianjin Teda

61%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+

17%

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals

73%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals

38%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals

14%

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

70%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

34%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)

53%

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tianjin Teda attack 1.11 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more

39%

level

27%

Tianjin Teda scores more

34%

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shijiazhuang Y. J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff