Tianjin Teda 1–1 Shandong Luneng: Result & Stats

Tianjin Teda

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shandong Luneng

A. Compagno 41'

Pedro Delgado 90+1'

5/21/2024

Super League · Round 13TEDA Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Tianjin Teda42%

×Draw24%

Shandong Luneng33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin TedaExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.39

Tianjin Teda

1.59

Shandong Luneng

1.39

Tianjin Teda creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

1.43

creates per match

1.52

1.26

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Tianjin Teda

1.43

Shandong Luneng

1.52

allows per match

Tianjin Teda

1.26

Shandong Luneng

1.76

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Tianjin Teda+0.07on par

Shandong Luneng-0.07on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw

67%

Tianjin Teda or Shandong Luneng

76%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

58%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

21%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

80%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

47%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

21%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

75%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

40%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

56%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.26 · 18 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.76 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.43 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.59

Shandong Luneng attack 1.52 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more

42%

level

24%

Shandong Luneng scores more

33%

Tianjin Teda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Škorić

Tianjin Teda · D

8.3

Match Events

41'

A. Compagno↳ I. Fiolić

45'

Dun Ba

46'

Li Yuanyi← Xie Wenneng

49'

Chen PuGoal cancelled

58'

Pedro Delgado← Huang Zhengyu

62'

Wang Zhenghao← Yang Zihao

70'

Zhenghao Wang

70'

Wang Qiuming← I. Fiolić

71'

Pengfei Han

71'

Shi Yan← Guo Hao

79'

82'

82'

85'

85'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TianjinShandong

Overview

44%Possession56%

15Total Shots20

1.28Expected Goals (xG)1.97

5Corners6

7Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots20

2On Target6

7Off Target7

6Blocked7

10Inside Box11

5Outside Box9

Passing

44%Possession56%

329Total Passes411

259Accurate Passes348

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2