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Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda — Super League 2018

Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
Zeca 32'
V. Qazaishvili 17'
A. Quiles 88'
11/1/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Shandong Luneng63%
×Draw21%
Tianjin Teda16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shandong Luneng
2.00
Tianjin Teda
0.90

Shandong Luneng creates 122% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Shandong Luneng
1.97
Tianjin Teda
0.96

allows per match

Shandong Luneng
0.83
Tianjin Teda
2.02

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.66scores more
Tianjin Teda-0.02on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Tianjin Teda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw
84%
Shandong Luneng or Tianjin Teda
79%
Draw or Tianjin Teda
37%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
38%
Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
86%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
59%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
32%
Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
59%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
23%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
79%
Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.83 · 8 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.02 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 1.97 + Tianjin Teda defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.00

Tianjin Teda attack 0.96 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more
63%
level
21%
Tianjin Teda scores more
16%

Shandong Luneng at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
CryzanShandong LunengShandong Luneng · F
8.2

Match Events

17'
V. Qazaishvili↳ Y. Li
32'
Zeca↳ Xie Wenneng
45+8'
Cryzan
45+8'
Zihao Yang
55'
Wenneng XiePenalty confirmed
59'
J. Liu← Sun Ming-Him
59'
Su Yuanjie← Yang Zihao
62'
Chen Pu← Xie Wenneng
63'
Wu Xinghan← Liu Yang
64'
Chen Zhexuan← Wang Qiuming
64'
Li Yongjia← C. Salvador
71'
Shi Ke← Zheng Zheng
82'
Wang Zhenghao← Xie Weijun
86'
Zhao Jianfei← Y. Li
86'
R. Merkies← Zeca
87'
Chen Zhexuan
87'
Chen Zhexuan
88'
A. Quiles↳ Huang Jiahui

Possession

59%Shandong

Shots

16Shandong

Pass accuracy

54%Shandong

Statistics

ShandongTianjin
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots5
2.25Expected Goals (xG)0.34
12Corners3
15Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots5
9On Target2
5Off Target3
2Blocked0
10Inside Box3
6Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
473Total Passes332
393Accurate Passes237
83%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
15Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Teda

Shandong Luneng beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 in Super League on November 1, 2025.

Goals: V. Qazaishvili (17'), Zeca (32'), A. Quiles (88').

Shandong Luneng controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Jinan.