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Tianjin Teda vs Chongqing Lifan — Super League 2018

Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
12/12/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Relegation Round - 1Suzhou City Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Tianjin Teda45%
×Draw24%
Chongqing Lifan31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tianjin Teda
1.61
Chongqing Lifan
1.29

Tianjin Teda creates 25% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 50 away

creates per match

Tianjin Teda
1.44
Chongqing Lifan
1.24

allows per match

Tianjin Teda
1.35
Chongqing Lifan
1.78

finishing

Tianjin Teda+0.00on par
Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Teda ↓

Chongqing Lifan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tianjin Teda or draw
69%
Tianjin Teda or Chongqing Lifan
76%
Draw or Chongqing Lifan
55%

Winning margin

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
23%
Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
80%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
48%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
22%
Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
72%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
37%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
59%
Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Teda at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.35 · 121 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Teda attack 1.44 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tianjin Teda scores more
45%
level
24%
Chongqing Lifan scores more
31%

Tianjin Teda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Tianjin Teda 1–1 Chongqing Lifan

Tianjin Teda and Chongqing Lifan drew 1-1 in Super League on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Suzhou City Sports Centre in Suzhou.