Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda — Super League 2018

Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
8/2/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Suzhou City Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chongqing Lifan41%
×Draw26%
Tianjin Teda33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chongqing Lifan
1.39
Tianjin Teda
1.23

Chongqing Lifan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 120 away

creates per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.26
Tianjin Teda
1.11

allows per match

Chongqing Lifan
1.34
Tianjin Teda
1.52

finishing

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par
Tianjin Teda+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Lifan ↓

Tianjin Teda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chongqing Lifan or draw
67%
Chongqing Lifan or Tianjin Teda
74%
Draw or Tianjin Teda
59%

Winning margin

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
19%
Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
75%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
40%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
16%
Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
71%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
35%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
55%
Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Lifan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.26 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tianjin Teda attack 1.11 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chongqing Lifan scores more
41%
level
26%
Tianjin Teda scores more
33%

Chongqing Lifan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chongqing Lifan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Chongqing Lifan 2–2 Tianjin Teda

Chongqing Lifan and Tianjin Teda drew 2-2 in Super League on August 2, 2020.

The match was played at Suzhou City Sports Centre in Suzhou.