Tianjin Songjiang 2–2 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Tianjin Songjiang

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Shenzhen Ruby FC

7/13/2019

Super League · Round 17Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tianjin Songjiang50%

×Draw23%

Shenzhen Ruby FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin SongjiangExpected goals in this matchShenzhen Ruby FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.24

Tianjin Songjiang

1.79

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.24

Tianjin Songjiang creates 44% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 67 away

1.32

creates per match

1.03

1.45

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Tianjin Songjiang

1.32

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.03

allows per match

Tianjin Songjiang

1.45

Shenzhen Ruby FC

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Songjiang ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tianjin Songjiang or draw

73%

Tianjin Songjiang or Shenzhen Ruby FC

77%

Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC

50%

Winning margin

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+

28%

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals

83%

Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals

53%

Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals

26%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

71%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

35%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)

65%

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Songjiang at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.32 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tianjin Songjiang scores more

50%

level

23%

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

27%

Tianjin Songjiang at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tianjin Songjiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff