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Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Songjiang — Super League 2018

Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
3/10/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC38%
×Draw24%
Tianjin Songjiang38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.50
Tianjin Songjiang
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.09
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.63
Tianjin Songjiang
1.90

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw
62%
Shenzhen Ruby FC or Tianjin Songjiang
76%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
62%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
18%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
78%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
44%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
19%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
78%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
44%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
50%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.09 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
38%
level
24%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
38%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2–1 Tianjin Songjiang

Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Tianjin Songjiang 2-1 in Super League on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre in Shenzhen.