Tianjin Songjiang 3–2 SHANGHAI SIPG: Result & Stats

Tianjin Songjiang

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

SHANGHAI SIPG

11/11/2018

Super League · Round 30Haihe Education Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tianjin Songjiang28%

×Draw24%

SHANGHAI SIPG48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin SongjiangExpected goals in this matchSHANGHAI SIPG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.67

Tianjin Songjiang

1.21

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.67

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 38% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 122 away

1.32

creates per match

1.90

1.45

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Tianjin Songjiang

1.32

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.90

allows per match

Tianjin Songjiang

1.45

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Songjiang ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tianjin Songjiang or draw

52%

Tianjin Songjiang or SHANGHAI SIPG

76%

Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG

72%

Winning margin

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+

11%

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals

70%

Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals

34%

Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals

12%

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

81%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

50%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)

37%

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Songjiang at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.10 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.32 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.90 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tianjin Songjiang scores more

28%

level

24%

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

48%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff