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Tianjin Songjiang vs Shandong Luneng — Super League 2018

Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
3/31/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tianjin Songjiang33%
×Draw24%
Shandong Luneng43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tianjin Songjiang
1.38
Shandong Luneng
1.61

Shandong Luneng creates 17% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 122 away

creates per match

Tianjin Songjiang
1.32
Shandong Luneng
1.77

allows per match

Tianjin Songjiang
1.45
Shandong Luneng
1.44

finishing

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par
Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Songjiang ↓

Shandong Luneng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tianjin Songjiang or draw
57%
Tianjin Songjiang or Shandong Luneng
76%
Draw or Shandong Luneng
67%

Winning margin

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
15%
Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
75%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
40%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
16%
Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
80%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
48%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
43%
Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Songjiang at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.44 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.32 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tianjin Songjiang scores more
33%
level
24%
Shandong Luneng scores more
43%

Shandong Luneng at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Tianjin Songjiang 2–4 Shandong Luneng

Shandong Luneng beat Tianjin Songjiang 4-2 in Super League on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Tianjin.